Has Netflix’s hit success House of Cards been transformed into an Irish House of Cards reality TV show with the formation of a minority Fine Gael government supported by a number of independent deputies, some of whom have now taken seats at the Cabinet table? You might think that only Frank Underwood would give a job at Cabinet to a man who days earlier called him “a political corpse”. But you would be wrong.
Is the new dispensation liable, like a House of Cards, to be blown down by the first puff of political wind? Or will it have the unlikely durability of Frank Underwood’s administration? Only time will tell.
Political prediction is always hazardous. Extrapolation is unreliable – I like to describe “straight line extrapolation” as “the shortest distance between two mistakes”.
I wish the new government well – if only for the sake of all of us. That said, we have to face up to the reality of what has happened.
The “democratic revolution” we were promised in 2011 never happened. The sea changes we now see arise only because the people roundly rejected those who promised and then failed to deliver to us a new politics.
Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil have jointly contrived to preserve for a further uncertain period what is, and was always, most dear to them – the assurance that between them they can dominate both Government and Opposition benches with a prospect of intermittently swapping places.
Preserving that political duopoly has turned out to be their highest political imperative. Punch needs Judy.
While “reliable sources” spent the last few weeks putting out the line that Enda Kenny regards himself as sitting in the political departure lounge and that he will step down sooner rather than later, I find that a little hard to accept. I think it was done to lull the party faithful and his rivals into acquiescence.
Kenny has negotiated a three year life time for the new government. Of course he would “rather go than be pushed”. But that only applies if there is anyone with the standing and the skill to “push” him in the first place.
I don’t see Brutus or Cassius lurking in the shadows. The Ides of March somehow seem a long time off. And the next diary date for confronting political realities is the 2019 local and European elections – a long time off.
Perhaps Michael D Higgins will call it a day in November 2018. That would give FG a very polite way to sack Enda – a decision by his colleagues acting on a “groundswell” in the party to nominate him as a candidate for the Park. How could he refuse?
Now that we have had our “Independents’ Day” experience, the constant search for political novelty will make it quite hard for Independent TDs to hold their seats in three years’ time. Fear of an election will keep the Independents in line for a while. Those who have taken office will want their time in the sun to be as long as possible. Those who are now government backbenchers will feel all the pain without any of the rewards. They will envy their fellow deputies who will be able to vote for populist causes safe in the knowledge that FF will always keep the tent from collapsing.
The battle on the opposition benches will be of great interest. Sinn Féin are in a difficult position. The embarrassing N-Word Incident is but the latest event in their slow realisation that Gerry has gone past his sell-by date. His bizarre tweets are really quite worrying.
The kindest explanation is that he gets lonely at bed time. In any other party, there would be somebody to quietly advise that he should spend less time on the trampoline. Or perhaps to ask whether he wanted to spend more time on the trampoline?!
Yet he is the only means by which the Boys of the Belfast Brigade can keep control of the party in the South.
If he stands down, there either will, or there will not be, a contest to succeed him. Such a contest would have to be based on some real issues. The candidates would have to speak to the media about their policy differences. The existence of policy divisions in SF has never been made public.
I remember that when veteran republican SF councillor Francie Malone publicly voiced his disagreement with Gerry’s plan for 6 super councils in the North, Gerry instantly suspended Francie’s membership of the party.
Sinn Féin is not a party that tolerates dissent. Hence the shocked silence about the “Ballymurphy N-word” tweet.
If anyone from any other party had tweeted that message, Mary Lou would have broken down the doors at Montrose to air her shock and horror.
Three more years of Gerry in opposition may be a depressing prospect. But like Enda, the Man Himself will stay or go as he pleases.
Frank Underwood’s scriptwriters are badly needed in Kildare Street.