Avoiding clichés such as “seismic”. “historic” and “game-changing” is difficult when describing or analysing the democratic decision of the people of the United Kingdom to leave the EU.
The legal and political process of withdrawal will take years – years of uncertainty. Uncertainty is bad for our economic growth and investment. Until the UK’s trading relations with the EU are sorted out, many, many economic decisions will be postponed – both within the UK and within EU member states.
Combined with a weak EU economy, this all spells trouble.
And to cap it all we have in Dublin a weak, almost temporary, government “in office but not in power” at a time when promoting and protecting the interests of Ireland at an inter-governmental level has never been as critical.
I attended a fascinating and informative post-Brexit briefing at the Institute of International & European Affairs hours after the result became known on Friday. The worthy IIEA is very much a pro-EU body but opinion seemed to be divided between pragmatists who addressed the urgent, practical political agenda with which Brexit has confronted us and the zealous who see more European integration as the panacea for all our ills – especially Brexit.
Indeed, I would have to agree that engaging in the “blame game” for the Brexit result is, at this juncture, both futile and distracting, were it not for the danger that those who advocate a deepening and strengthening of the process of integration in response to Brexit might persuade the institutions of the EU to ignore the reasons for and implications of the UK vote and plough on regardless.
The British revolt is part of a global phenomenon which is transforming the ballot boxes of the world’s democracies into instruments of anger management – anger in relation to the power of international mobile capital at the expense of the democratic autonomy of the nation-state; anger, too, at growing enrichment of the rich elite at the expense of the working and non-working poor; anger at the EU for becoming the means whereby the powerful dominate the powerless; and anger at the dilution of identity.
Faced with this new world-wide phenomenon, as Donald Tusk, President of the EU Council, pointed out in the last few weeks, the EU ruling class chose firstly to ignore it and then to dismiss it by advancing utterly unpopular measures such as deeper EU integration and the creation of an EU Army. These are the projects of a small, disconnected elite. Earlier this year, an Irish opinion poll demonstrated that such measures are opposed in Ireland by a margin of two or three to one.
When Angela Merkel asked one million migrants to come to Europe last year, she then sought to impose a mandatory quota on EU member states for migrant settlement sharing. This was an act of supreme folly. Germany’s demographics may need migratory replenishment. But the answer was not to declare a freedom to roam across the Schengen area. Arrogant finger-wagging at member states which tried to protect their borders from the consequences of her largesse compounded their sense of resentment. German tolerance quickly evaporated as well.
The subliminal effect those events had on the minds of UK voters lit the fuse of migration as a live issue in the Brexit campaign – even if the UK was not part of Schengen. Nigel Farage’s “Breaking Point” pictorial billboard campaign was carefully designed to link migrant chaos in the Balkans with the UK’s unease at the existence of the Jungle Camp in Calais and a sense of siege by outsiders.
On top of that, Germany’s bullying of the Greeks to accept what the IMF has described as unsustainable debt burdens blended seamlessly into the problem of Greece as a jumping off point for migration into Europe. And the “deal” done with Turkey to stem migrant flows into Greece seemed tacky – especially when it kept alive the idea of Turkey joining the EU. Germany knows it is crippling Greece. The IMF has protested about it. But the Germans will countenance no debt write-offs until next year’s Bundestag elections are over.
Germany has little or no interest in allowing monetary policy in the Euro-zone to be used to stimulate growth in those countries crippled by austerity. German interests are paramount in determining so much of EU economic policy.
None of this was lost on the minds of Brexit voters. Nor were the crude threats made by Wolfgang Schauble and Jean Claude Juncker to deal toughly with the UK if it voted to leave
It is hard to reconcile such “Go ahead and make my day” politics with a real concern to safeguard the EU itself.
Alas, it all backfired badly.
Ireland now needs a good market access and trade deal for the UK. And so does Europe, as we will see when the heat goes out of Thursday’s outcome.
And we need a political deal which preserves our Free Travel Area with the UK. We cannot afford to join Schengen. And we can’t be forced to do so if we play our cards right.
Remember, the UK is not going to impose visa requirements on EU nationals as the means of protecting its borders. EU nationals will continue to be able to travel visa-free to the UK.
UK migrancy from the EU will be controlled by other measures dealing with restrictions on employment, welfare, healthcare, accommodation and mandatory registration of long-stay visitors, coupled with deportation.
Ireland can easily cooperate with the UK using our existing border controls as part of a plan to prevent non-EU migrants using Ireland as a backdoor to Britain.
Northern Ireland will have to resign itself to the Irish Sea crossings becoming the place for light immigration and customs surveillance with the UK.
A senior civil servant once told me that there were usually three time periods in considering whether Ireland’s diplomats should take any difficult stance in EU matters. The first period was when it would be “premature” to take such a stance, followed by the second period was when matters were “too sensitive” to take the stance, and immediately afterwards the third period was when it would be “too late” to take the stance!
Our government and diplomats have their work cut out now. They have to take many stances in the forthcoming months and years. Here’s hoping they are up to the job.