Have you noticed that the number of Ukraine flags and banners around the place has fallen very significantly? Dublin City Council has taken down the Ukrainian colours. Public buildings have done likewise. Even private flats and homes have removed them from view.
Did someone in authority in Dublin City Council decide that the Ukrainian colours that they flew along our main thoroughfares should be stowed away. Was that a decision of the Council’s elected members or its executive? Did someone in the Oireachtas decide to turn off the blue and yellow floodlighting at Leinster House?
Or is just coincidence that at the very height of Putin’s war-criminal attacks on the civilian population of Ukraine the level of publicly demonstrated support in Ireland should fade like snow on a ditch?
Micheál Martin is now our foreign minister. And he has spoken of Ireland’s continuing support for Ukraine. Now is the time for him to demonstrate publicly that our support is not flagging. Difficulties in housing Ukrainian refugees should not blunt our strong support for the Ukrainians – here in Ireland or in their cold and darkened cities.
President Zelenskiy’s government needs support at every level now more than ever. The Ukrainians are manning the trenches of the frontline between European democracy and tyranny. Russia is planning a renewed onslaught in January and February in which hundreds of thousands of deluded and demoralised conscripts will be thrown by Putin into a massive push to subjugate Kyiv.
The Ukrainian chief of armed forces, General Zaluzhny, has given a clear warning of what is planned for the Russian winter offensive. For the Ukrainians, a ceasefire is not an option. It would only serve to strengthen Russian resolve to renew their offensive next Spring.
The West simply has to redouble military support in the form of war materiel and advanced weaponry for the Ukrainian army. The current battle for Bakhmut is turning into a latter-day equivalent of the Great War siege of Verdun. Wave after wave of Russian conscripts are being dropped into the meatgrinder of trench warfare for a city of little or no strategic importance simply to demonstrate the contempt held by inept and servile Russian generals for human life of every kind – combatants and civilians.
The plight of Ukrainian civilians is awful. And Putin is attempting to inflict the greatest pain on the weakest to force some form of surrender.
Where Micheál Martin can now make a difference is at EU level. He should take the lead in an EU political initiative to bring home to Belarus that any escalation of its land or forces’ involvement in Putin’s genocide will bring down separately on Belarus the most savage consequences in the form absolute isolation and political and economic sanctions.
I have in mind total travel bans for all citizens, repatriation of nationals, impounding of all Belarussian assets, total closure of EU airspace for all flights originating in or operating from Belarus, total closure of borders including for Russian land traffic to and from Kaliningrad, blanket personal sanctions against all senior members of the Belarussian state and military apparatus and their families, a total ban on exports to Belarus, cutting off of diplomatic relations, and complete suspension of all telecommunications. And the duration of such sanctions should be spelled out as permanent for as long as the Lukashenko regime hopes to survive.
There has to be a heavy price on cooperating with Putin’s war for Belarus. Just as Franco’s Spain held back from joining the Axis powers war in 1940 for fear of the consequences, Lukashenko has to understand that further or escalated cooperation with Putin will have existential consequences for his satellite state. He is vulnerable; his regime cannot last in complete dependence on Putin. However ludicrous or odious it may seem as a state, Belarus cannot survive complete re-absorption into a latter-day Soviet empire. Because Belarus is nominally independent, such a sanctions regime cannot be seen or represented as an escalation threatening Russian sovereignty.
Now is not the time for empty words or gestures. The EU is either serious or it is not about Putin’s plans to use Belarus for its planned New Year offensive. There will be little or no point about considering such consequences after the New Year onslaught has begun.
The much-publicised vehicle marking of Belarussian military vehicles with square red symbols (equivalents of Putin’s Z-symbols) may be intended to scare the Ukrainian army into re-deployment of resources to its norther borders. The same may be true of Putin’s visit to Lukashenko. NATO will know the truth of these matters. But there is no reason to hold back on stating clearly and unambiguously the consequences for Belarus of any further or deeper involvement.
This is work for Iveagh House under its new minister. It is work that badly needs to be done. And now.