Like Frodo standing at the precipice on Mount Doom, torn apart by simultaneous, conflicting emotions about casting the Ring into the inferno (no reference to Michael Ring intended!), Enda Kenny stands on the political ledge of Government Buildings, eyeing the mob below, a large portion of which is shouting “Jump!”. But will he? Or will he climb back safely into the Taoiseach’ chair.
He has a dilemma. Conventional wisdom says as follows.
Doing the “right thing” by the party, he should act on the logic of his statement that he will not lead FG into the next election and should resign his leadership now so that the party can elect a new leader well in advance of the next election. Otherwise an election will happen unexpectedly leaving the FG party’s planning in tatters.
But it’s not that simple. For one thing, like Frodo, Enda longs to hold onto the means of power. There is no better life in immediate prospect for him – such as becoming President or EU Commissioner. Going to the back benches has no attraction. Now that the shock of the last car-crash general election has departed, he can see himself carrying on as Taoiseach for a few more years with boyish gusto. That’s what he meant when he claimed to have recovered his “mojo”.
Secondly, he knows that his would-be successors are split by their several ambitions. If a back-bencher, or two or ten, tables a no-confidence motion, none of the heirs-apparent will dare to support it unless it has clear majority support. The idea floated recently that they might unite to topple Enda but then scrap it out among themselves seems far-fetched. Rivals for power usually play a dirtier game than that. None of them wants to be seen to wield the dagger in the ensuing contest.
Thirdly, he asks himself a very simple, if deceptive, question: “Which among them would do a better job as Taoiseach than me?”
Leo? Simon? Or Frances? And so he convinces himself that he is at least as good a Taoiseach as any of his rivals. There is no urgency, he thinks, in handing office over to any of them. Note: he is not asking “Who will keep the most FG seats at the next election?”
Fourthly, if he resigns, the FG party’s rules provide for a poll of all the party’s members, creating a power vacuum of months’ duration. If he is seen as a lame-duck Taoiseach now, he would be infinitely weaker holding office during an interregnum.
It has been suggested that the rivals would agree that the person having the greatest support in the parliamentary party would be afforded a coronation by having the weaker candidates withdraw – thus avoiding a members’ poll.That idea is ridiculous. For a candidate significantly more popular with the grass-roots members than with the Oireachtas members, such an agreement would be suicidal.
Then there is a fifth consideration. Would a newly-elected FG leader remain Taoiseach after the next general election? The odds are beginning to favour Micheál Martin becoming the next Taoiseach.
For a career politician, the question is whether it might not be better to leave Enda in charge to take responsibility for a loss of power and a further loss of seats – and then to take over.
For candidates in their comparative political youth – such as Varadkar and Coveney – there is an element of the “poisoned chalice” to becoming leader of this rudderless minority government -depending on the grace and favour of FF to avoid an election in which they will be seen as the unpopular incumbent.
Neither Paschal Donohue nor Simon Harris has the standing or charisma that could win an election for the leadership now. Why would they support having one?
So it may be that none of the alternative leaders actually wants a heave now. Better, they think, to wait for Enda to go when he chooses – or when Micheál and/or the electorate choose. Only the most nervous backbencher sees the immediate urgency for a change. Any heave can only come from the party’s “outsiders” – including John Paul Phelan, John Deasy and Brendan Griffin.
Enda knows all this. It was to keep the “insiders” in line that Enda waved the prospect of a re-shuffle before colleagues this week. Who wants to lose his or her job in a run-up to an election? Which TD who craves a job would turn his or her back on a possible re-shuffle? Which of them wants to bet their political futures on backing a candidate for leadership in a race decided by the fickle grass-roots members? Which of Enda’s Senators wishes to see the back of him?
So as long as Enda views being Taoiseach for the short term as better than not being Taoiseach in the shorter term, he will stay put.
For him, there is always the Micawber-like hope that “something will turn up”. Some “event” may transform the impossible into the inevitable. When you hold office, letting it go voluntarily can be later mocked by the Fates. Such hope in the Fates has served him well thus far.
There is a saying: Fortune favours the brave. As Enda sees it, he is bravely battling on. Have any of his serious rivals the bravery to challenge Enda’s incumbency?
FG has major problems at the next election. It can’t bring on new blood. It can’t promise anything very different. It can’t claim to be indispensable. It can’t claim that FF –a party which it invited to join it in government – is unfit for government.
In the end, Enda sees himself as owing the party nothing. He has brought them to the heights and has kept them there. None of his rivals would have done so, he thinks. If they are in for a drubbing next time out, as some fear, why should he leave now? That’s what his mojo is telling him.