On St Patrick’s Day, 1931, Stanley Baldwin, the British Prime Minister, speaking in the closing days of a vital by-election campaign, rounded on the press barons, Lords Rothermere and Beaverbrook, who were using their power in an attempt to topple him, and coined the memorable phrase to describe their bullying role:
“Power without responsibility – the prerogative of the harlot throughout the ages.”
The tide of public opinion turned in favour of Baldwin.
That phrase, slightly risqué for its time, seems particularly apt to describe the “new politics” which now engulf us, the growing impotence of the government led by Enda Kenny, and the palpable sense of rudderless-ness in the corridors and committee rooms of Leinster House these days.
The “prerogative of the harlot” aptly describes the position of Fianna Fáil, who appear to many to be cynically keeping Fine Gael in a political wheelchair and keeping Enda Kenny on a life-support machine, all in the apparent hope of forcing FG into an unexpected election in which the face on the poster has been described as a “political corpse” by one of his own cabinet.
At the same time, the phrase that I used here last week to describe the present government, as “being in office but not in power”, is but the other face of Stanley Baldwin’s coin.
In the week of Brexit, 57% of Irish voters apparently think Enda Kenny should go before the Budget. And, significantly, that figure is partly constituted by 48% of Fine Gael voters. If Brexit hadn’t happened, the figure would doubtless be even higher.
It is no surprise that Brendan Griffin’s act of rebellion was not joined by any of the contenders for Enda’s job; they are collectively engaged in a slow bicycle race in which they are trying to build coalitions of support among the party’s parliamentarians, councillors, and ordinary membership who together form the ponderous electoral college to replace Enda as party leader should he decide to resign.
But naked as Griffin was left standing, he is still standing. And the clear vision that he spoke of – Fine Gael being pitch-forked into an election with Enda as leader – is a nightmare privately shared by the great majority of FG members.
But they will not act. The contenders are for the moment scared of a premature “heave” backfiring. And a record percentage of the FG Parliamentary Party are office holders with a short-term interest in job security which is temporarily outweighing their growing alarm for their seats.
I think that the Fine Gael Parliamentary Party would be more likely simply to nominate a person to be Taoiseach rather than embark on a lengthy and divisive party leadership campaign if Enda were to signal his departure. Although such a decision would largely pre-empt the party’s rules on selecting a leader, it would have the advantage of having someone with the backing of the party’s TDs and Senators in place to lead them in case a snap election was precipitated by FF in the middle of a drawn-out leadership contest.
And such a decision would challenge FF either to continue the “supply and confidence” agreement or to cause an election with FG being led by a new and more popular de facto leader simply because there had been a change in FG’s leadership – a very unenviable dilemma for FF.
There is little voter confidence in the longevity of the present Government with half of the voters believing there will be an election in the year. 47% of voters perceive FF to be running the country from opposition even though only 29% of them support FF.
Sinn Féin have little to be happy about; their vote is back to the disappointing level of the last general election (13%) and Gerry Adams has signalled his determination to lead them into the next election.
Undoubtedly the “new politics” have deprived Sinn Féin of what they most wanted – being the largest party in opposition.
But we have to face the reality that as long as FG and FF both receive support in the range of 25% to 30%, neither can govern without the support of the other unless they make a coalition with parties of hard left.
Minority government is rapidly losing any charm it ever possessed. There are worrying signs for the independent TDs that the public is looking elsewhere.
If no major centre party can get even one third of the voters to support it, and if FF and FG refuse to seek a mandate to form a joint coalition, the gap opens up for a new centre/centre right party to offer the people the prospect of a majority coalition which is not handcuffed to the parties of the hard left. That is especially so if FF persists in the left seeking strategy currently being pursued by Micheál Martin
Enda Kenny will remain as Taoiseach as long as he can. He will dismiss calls on him to consider the future of the party on the basis that he brought it to its 2011 heights. He has never really accepted that the 2016 election was a “wallop” for him personally. All the signs are that it will take a crow-bar to get him out of Merrion Street, and none of the FG pretenders can wield much more than a feather duster by all appearances.
So, the present situation is one where weak government is set to remain the order of the day. With local property tax bills set to soar in 2018, and water charges set to return to the political agenda next year, “middle Ireland” is getting more worried and less confident.
It is hard to see things just muddling along as at present. Something will “give” – expectedly or unexpectedly. Today’s poll suggests that voters sense the improbability of continuity. As politicians head off to their constituencies and a temporary break from the strain of uncertainty and unreality, are we heading into a phony war Autumn followed by a severe winter of discontent?
We should ponder Baldwin’s words.