NULL

Leadership contests and the strong, silent coalition against reform

Maybe all is not lost for President Trump. A column in the latest edition of the well-produced, deeply conservative Irish fortnightly newspaper, The Catholic Voice, is calling on all its readers to pray for Donald Trump so that he may not be deflected by the wave of criticism from anti-Christian media from pursuing his policies. The strength of the godless media onslaught on the President is described in the column as – wait for it! – “almost Satanic”.

Other columns in the same edition deal with issues such as modern exorcism, the personal nature of Satan, and, intriguingly, the likely challenge by world Freemasonry to the celebration this year of the centenary of the Marian apparitions at Fatima in 1917.

My favourite item, however, was one concerning the need for modesty in clothing, praising three Limerick secondary schools for adopting girls’ uniforms with above-the-ankle-length skirts on the basis that they are kinder to heavier girls who would not look so well in shorter skirts and better for slim girls who might provoke impure thoughts among young men if their skirts were shorter.

The paper even carries an ad seeking a “strong, young Catholic” prepared to join a Novena for Fatima rowing boat which will cross the Atlantic to America this year bringing the Fatima apparition and messages to the attention of those living in Trump’s America. I hope their visas are in order.

So The Catholic Voice may yet earn Ireland a front seat at Seán Spicer’s White House press briefing as part of the media that is not the enemy of the people.

Prayer, alas, will be in short supply in that quarter for Leo Varadkar’s political ambitions.

Even if the entire Fine Gael party is under an editorial fatwa for Enda’s temporary cooling in relations with the Vatican over the child sex abuse scandal, Leo’s position on Gay marriage makes him a “marked man” for special condemnation and I have not read any calls for prayers for Leo yet.

But Leo has his work cut out – with or without the power of prayer.

A few weeks ago, the word in Leinster House was that Leo was a shoo-in. Paddy Power’s short odds on Leo were seen as generous.

Not so now. There has been a seismic shift in Fine Gael parliamentarians’ thinking on Enda’s successor. Leo is now someone who they fear could alienate conservative voters. Simon Coveney is now the insiders’ preferred choice for leader precisely because he is low-key and conventional.

A major catalyst in the sea-change on Leo has been the attitude of the Irish Independent towards him. Until comparatively recently, he was the coming man. He was lavishly covered and praised. But something happened in the last few months, and it was a case of “hero to zero” as far as helpful coverage for Leo was concerned.

I would not be as cynical as to suggest a linkage between the new coolness to Leo and his apparent support for the INM pensioners. Leo went public about his discussions with the AG and the Pensions Board chairman to see if he could intervene on the side of the pensioners in their High Court litigation with INM in early December.

One way or another, Varadar’s private life and circumstances suddenly became a matter of great interest in the Irish Independent. And that has spooked out a good number of Fine Gael parliamentarians – a majority of whom were confidently tipped as Leo supporters until very recently.

One way or another, an ebb-tide has set in for Leo; it is Coveney who has the political wind in his sails.

Do poor opinion polls compound this effect in FG?

One gets the feeling that the entire party senses that the game is drifting away from them. A change of leader is no longer seen as the launch-pad for recovery; it is now seen as a defensive, seat-saving manoeuvre. Coveney is seen simply as some-one who may stop the rot.

Today’s Sunday Business Post Red-C poll shows a slow decline in support for the civil war parties – down now to a bare 50% between them. Sinn Fein made some significant headway by showing some clarity of purpose on the current Garda controversy. Unless there is a dramatic change in the form of a new political player on the field or such as a FF-FG coalition or a FF-SF coalition,a general election now would produce yet another dose of paralysis.

The FG party is suffering badly because it appears to be in office but out of power – while FF is seen as being in power but out of office. That is a debilitating, confidence-sapping and morale-destroying consequence of the New Politics.

And, as Noel Whelan pointed out last week, we now have the double effect of a weak government becoming even further paralysed by the drift and uncertainty that inevitably afflicts Ministers and civil servants in the run up to any re-shuffle.

An innocent victim of all of this is Seanad Reform. The major reforming Bill that I introduced in the Seanad, which would end the party political patronage grip on the Seanad by giving every citizen a right to a vote in Seanad elections, passed its Second Stage, the stage at which there is agreement in principle for the Bill’s content.

But then the strong, silent coalition against reform flexed its muscles. The Taoiseach, who spoke in favour of reform, asked for a few weeks’ pause in order to establish an Implementation Group to oversee the reform process and to carry through the recommendations of the Manning Report.

That was six months ago. There still is no such group.

Keeping the internal party support of anti-reform Senators or avoiding alienating them has caused Kenny and all his would-be successors to quietly shelve Seanad Reform even though it is a stated part of the published Programme for Government.

Those who believe in Seanad Reform will probably have to bring their case to the people if the elected Government refuses for narrow internal party political reasons to implement its own stated policies.

So much for the Democratic Revolution. So much for the New Politics.

The Irish people are entitled to something better – and not just the “same old, same old” under a changed FG leadership up until the next election and another minority, but FF-led, government thereafter.

That’s the challenge now.